WSI Energycast Seasonal Forecast Calls for Cold in South, Warm in North
WSI issues an update of special interest to energy traders
Billerica, MA. - January 3, 2003 - WSI Energycast Seasonal Forecast Calls for Cold in South, Warm in North WSI issues an update of special interest to energy traders BILLERICA, Mass., January 3, 2003 - WSI Corporation today issued the seasonal forecast for the upcoming three-month period (January to March). WSI expects the period to be cooler-than-normal in the southern tier of states from the Southwest to the Southeast (e.g., Tucson, Dallas, Houston, Little Rock, Kansas City, Atlanta, and Miami). Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected in the Pacific Coast states, northern Rockies and Plains, Great Lakes, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic states (e.g., Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Sacramento, Los Angeles, Billings, Bismarck, Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Boston, New York, Washington).
WSI expects the following monthly trends:
- In January - cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected in the Southern Plains, Southeast, and mid-Atlantic states. The coldest temperature anomalies are expected in the Southeast. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected from the Rocky Mountains westward, along with the northern and central Plains, Great Lakes states and New England. The warmest temperature anomalies are expected in the Pacific Northwest.
- In February - slightly below-normal temperatures are again expected in the Southern Plains, Southeast, and mid-Atlantic states. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected from the Rocky Mountains westward, along with the northern and central Plains, Great Lakes states and New England. The warmest temperature anomalies are again expected in the Pacific Northwest.
- In March - slightly colder-than-normal temperatures are expected in the Southwest, southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast states, and parts of the Southeast. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected in the Pacific Coast states, northern and central Rockies, northern and central Plains, Great Lakes states, Ohio Valley, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic states. Warmest temperatures, relative to normal, are again expected in the Pacific Northwest.
According to WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford, "After a cold start to the heating season in the eastern and southern states, which WSI forecasted, we expect the remainder of the winter to be characterized by warmer-than-normal temperatures in the West and across the northern tier of states, with cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Southeast. CPC's outlook is in agreement."
WSI successfully predicted (1) a hot 2002 summer season, (2) a cold November 2002 across the eastern half of the United States, and (3) a cold December 2002 in the Southeast. Their three-month seasonal forecasts have been skillful for 8 out of the last 12 periods. A skillful seasonal forecast is defined as one that is closer to what is actually observed than a forecast using the 10-year average temperature.
WSI's Energycast seasonal forecasts are now being issued using the trailing 10-year (1992-2001) average temperature as "normal". This reflects the sentiment in the trading industry that the last 10 years are more representative of future weather than the US government standard 30-year fixed (1971-2000) averages.
WSI, which provides customized weather information to energy traders, issues its Seasonal Weather Advisories twice monthly. The first is made available to WSI subscribers two days before the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues its seasonal forecasts. The second is sent to customers toward the end of the month. The next WSI seasonal forecast, which will cover the period February-April, will be issued on January 14th.
Effects in the Marketplace
WSI's latest seasonal forecast is relatively bearish for Midwestern and Northeast power and gas prices. Above-normal temperatures should keep heating demand - and, therefore, gas demand and electric power loads - down in the Great Lakes, Northeast and Plains during January and February. Traditionally, normals begin to increase during March. Therefore, if temperatures are above-normal during the month, load and prices could drop even more than usual. Above-normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest could mean less snow pack and a faster and earlier snowmelt. That may push down spring and summer streamflows, limiting hydropower production during the critical summer months.
About WSI Corporation
WSI Corporation is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the aviation, media and energy markets, and multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI provides the world’s most innovative and trusted briefing solutions for aviation professionals through every phase flight. WSI’s pre-flight briefing solutions include WSI Pilotbrief which is consistently voted #1 by professional pilots in reader surveys. Daily, thousands of aviation professionals trust the WSI Pilotbrief system, at the nation's top FBOs, corporate flight departments, and FAA Flight Service Stations, to provide the necessary information to plan safe flights. WSI is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England, and is member of The Weather Channel Companies.
About ESAI Corporation
Since its inception in 1984, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) has been dedicated
to monitoring, analyzing, and synthesizing information about world-wide energy
markets. Tapping the talents of its senior-level staff, ESAI provides clients
with unparalleled insight into where the markets have been and where they are
headed. ESAI provides ongoing systematic analysis of energy prices in the oil,
natural gas, and energy markets. For more information on ESAI services visit
www.esai.com
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