By Bob Papper

Weather is a must in local bradcasts, and a strong weather segment can lead to better ratings.

"Weather is a four-letter word," says Jerry Gumbert, managing director of Audience Research and Development. "Hope."

People watch the weather in search of a forecast that matches their plans. Gumbert says if one forecast doesn't provide what they want, they'll try another station, and another. He says you could probably count on one hand the number of markets where weather isn't the No. 1 area of interest.

It doesn't matter where you are.

"You'd think weather would be more important in Grand Rapids than in Phoenix," says Kerry Oslund, news director at WXIA-TV in Atlanta. "But it's not."

What about in places where weather hardly seems to change? "Doesn't matter," says Greg Dawson, news director at KNSD-TV in San Diego. "It is still one of-if not the top-area of interest."

"Weather is huge everywhere," says Seth Feldman, news director at KHNL-TV in Honolulu. He says no one made much of a commitment to weather in Hawaii until about 10 years ago. Now, three of the four stations run "first weather"-somewhere in the first block.

Hardly anything so universally affects people as the weather, and meaningful weather changes are not absolute. "A 5-degree difference and some clouds may not make much difference most places," says Dawson, "but here [in San Diego], it's what we're interested in."

It's All About the Forecast
"Our society lives for the weekend," says Gumbert. So the weather is all about the forecast. Tomorrow, the next day, the five-day forecast, the seven-day forecast. "If we could predict the weather for May or June, people would want to know that," says Gumbert.

Most days, there really isn't much more to say-at least not much more that anyone cares about. So why run weather for the more typical three to three and a half minutes?

"We're all fighting to build station image," says Gumbert, "and you can't do that in 30 to 40 seconds."

"Weather image is as important as the news image," notes Jim Bernstein of Frank N. Magid Associates in Marion, IA.

"I can tell you the weather for the next eight to 10 weeks right now," says Chris Berg, news director at KOB-TV in Albuquerque, NM. Despite Albuquerque's generally predictable weather, his station still promotes weather heavily. "Major weather doesn't happen often, but when it does, it's huge," says Berg. "If it's raining or snowing, we'll lead the newscast with weather."

Stations do not win viewers with weather night after night. Rather, they win viewers on the relatively few days when weather is severe. But that nightly focus on weather is crucial for branding the station, so viewers know where to look or listen when the weather takes a turn.

Bernstein once watched Cedar Rapids storm coverage as severe weather threatened a lightly populated area of the market. "It wasn't very compelling television," notes Bernstein. The storm was about 75 miles away and it was nighttime. But viewership soared. The station that stayed with live coverage won. "If you make the weather commitment," he says, "you have to follow through. You can't be a little bit pregnant."

Gumbert says stations fail when the weather looks ominous but is not. "[Station personnel] know it's not severe weather," he says, "but they forget that they're the only ones who know that." In situations like that, he says it's a good idea to go on the air and reassure people.

Personality or Technology?
There is no single secret to winning weather, but there are certainly varying strategies. One thing is certain: If you have the dominant weather personality in the market, give that person the proper technology and he or she will be unbeatable.

No money for technology? Personality may still carry the day, but the station will be susceptible to an assault based on technology and team coverage.

Technology can be a critical advantage in smaller markets, Gumbert says, but in larger markets, good weather technology is simply expected by viewers. "It's the price of admission to stay in the game," Gumbert says.

"If you've got [the personality], you promote that," says Michele Gors, news director at WREG-TV in Memphis, TN, "but a better way is to sell the product." Technology is often the safer bet, she says.

"We're all about technology," Berg says, "and the ability to forecast." When he arrived at KOB, Berg says the station had to compete with a popular meteorologist who had been in the market for 35 years. They chose to go the technology route, and it helped. "We were light-years ahead," Berg says, "but now we're only fractionally ahead technologically, as others have invested." Berg would like to buy even more technology, but a tight capital budget stands in the way of the latest gear.

Becky Lutgen Gardner, news director at KCRG-TV in Cedar Rapids, IA, says her chief meteorologist has been there 28 years, but KCRG still promotes the team. "People must trust personalities," Gardner says, "but people are getting pretty savvy. They know technology can save lives."

Brenda Baumgartner, news director at KPVI-TV in Pocatello, ID, says it is a combination, but her station's weather person really makes the difference. "He's really into it, passionate, entertaining to watch, [and he] teaches you something," she says.

Exactly right, Bernstein says. "I've seen a lot of stations win weather with equipment," Bernstein says. "But you have to have the people who know how to use it. Not only the scientific aspect of it, but also how to relate to people like you and me. It's got to be a combination."-Bob Papper is professor of telecommunications at Ball State University and director of the RTNDA/Ball State University Annual Survey. He's also the author of "Broadcast News Writing Stylebook," now in its second edition.