ARE YOU IN FOR A COLD WINTER?
	You may not be aware that WSI’s Energy group issues Seasonal Outlooks that are considered among the best in the industry, and the staple of many professionals in the energy business who use the outlooks as a valuable tool for planning energy buys. For the period August-October 2003, the group was exceptionally accurate, with skill scores reaching an all-time high for their seasonal forecasts.
The group utilizes a variety of high-tech tools to create the winter seasonal forecast. These tools include a Climate Model, and two Statistical Model Forecasts, all run in-house. They also study sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, snow cover characteristics during the early season, prediction of the North American Oscillation (NAO), and the presence or absence of El Nino / La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific. The WSI Energy group recently issued their outlook for the 2003-2004 winter season. They expect this winter to be a cold one over much of the country, including the entire western two-thirds of the country, with the exception of the Southwest. Coldest temperatures, relative to normal, are expected in the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer-than-normal in the eastern third of the country and in the Southwest. As for precipitation, there is a 55-65% chance of above-normal amounts in all locations, with the exception of the northern Rockies, northern Plains, east Texas, and parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast. In these regions a 50-60% chance of below-normal precipitation exists. Forecast Summary WSI forecast models display reasonable agreement for the winter in the western US, although the models’ solutions are now the exact opposite from the October runs and show a warm winter in the West. WSI has moderate-to-high confidence in (a) warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Southwest and low-to-moderate confidence in (b) cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Southeast. WSI has relatively low confidence in cooler-than-normal temperatures in the eastern third of the country this winter due to a lack of consensus among forecast tools. WSI expects the following monthly trends (normal defined as the 1971-2000 averages): In December, Cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected east of the Mississippi River. Coolest temperatures, relative to normal, are expected in the Southeast. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected in the western two-thirds of the country, with the largest temperature anomalies still expected in the Southwest. In January, Cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected in the Pacific Northwest, northern and central Rockies, the Plains, and Great Lakes states. Coolest temperatures, relative to normal, are expected in the central and southern Plains. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected in California, the Southwest, and most locations east of the Mississippi River. The largest positive temperature anomalies are expected in the Southwest. In February, warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected in all locations. Warmest temperatures, relative to normal, are again expected in the Southwest.
Top