-- WSI issues an update of special interest to energy traders
--
Billerica, MA. - February 4, 2003
WSI Corporation today issued the seasonal outlook for the upcoming
three-month period (February to April). WSI expects the period
to be cooler-than-normal in the southern tier of states from
the central and southern Rockies across the central and southern
Plains to the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states (e.g., Phoenix,
Tucson, Denver, Dallas, Houston, Little Rock, Kansas City, Cincinnati,
Atlanta, Miami, Philadelphia, Washington). Warmer-than-normal
temperatures are expected in the Pacific Coast states, northern
Rockies and Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast (e.g., Seattle,
Portland, San Francisco, Sacramento, Los Angeles, Billings,
Bismarck, Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Boston, New York).
WSI's seasonal outlooks reference a trailing 10-year normal.
WSI expects the following monthly trends:
• In February, warmer-than-normal temperatures
are expected from the Rocky Mountains westward, along with
the northern Plains. The warmest temperatures, relative to
normal, are expected in the Pacific Northwest and northern
California. Below-normal temperatures are expected east of
a line from Texas to Wisconsin, with the largest anomalies
in the Southeast and Florida.
• In March, warmer-than-normal temperatures
are expected in the Pacific Coast states, central and northern
Rockies, central and northern Plains, Great Lakes, and the
Northeast. Largest anomalies are expected in the Pacific Northwest,
northern Rockies, and northern Plains. Cooler-than-normal
temperatures are expected south and east of a boundary from
Phoenix to Salt Lake City to Washington DC. The largest anomalies
are in the southern Plains and western Gulf Coast states.
• In April, warmer-than-normal temperatures
are expected in the Pacific Coast states, northern Rockies
and Plains, Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Warmest
temperatures, relative to normal, are expected in the Northeast.
Cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected for the central
and southern Rockies, central and southern Plains, and Gulf
Coast states, with the largest anomalies expected in the southern
Plains.
According to WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford, "We
expect below-normal temperatures to continue into February in
the Northeast, while CPC is favoring warmer-than-normal temperatures
there. We also expect the February-April period to average cooler-than-normal
in the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states, while CPC is forecasting
warmer-than-normal temperatures. Other than that, the WSI and
CPC forecasts are similar."
Effects in the Marketplace
WSI's latest forecast indicates there may be a significant boost
to heating demand in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest
regions during February. That would push both gas and power
demand up, keeping power prices and the gas basis high. In fact,
power prices would be pushed up by the combination of higher
load and higher input fuel costs. March and April are traditionally
"shoulder months", with moderate heating and/or cooling demand.
If the forecast holds, warmer-than-normal temperatures during
those months will push gas and power prices back down.
WSI successfully predicted (1) a hot 2002 summer season, (2)
a cold December-January period this winter in the southeast
United States, and (3) a warm December-January period this winter
in the northwest United States. Their three-month seasonal forecasts
have been skillful for 8 out of the last 12 periods. A skillful
seasonal forecast is defined as one that is closer to what is
actually observed than a forecast using the 10-year average
temperature.
WSI, which provides customized weather information to energy
traders, issues its Seasonal Outlook twice monthly. The first
is made available to WSI subscribers two days before the Climate
Prediction Center (CPC) issues its seasonal forecasts. The second
is sent to customers toward the end of the month. The next WSI
seasonal forecast, which will cover the period March-May, will
be issued on February 18th.
About WSI
WSI Corporation is the world's leading provider of weather-driven
business solutions for professionals in the aviation, media
and energy markets, and multiple federal and state government
agencies. WSI is headquartered in Billerica, Massachusetts
with offices in Birmingham, England, and is a wholly owned
subsidiary of Landmark Communications. More information about
WSI can be found at www.wsienergycast.com.
About ESAI
Since its inception in 1984, Energy Security Analysis Inc.
(ESAI) has been dedicated to monitoring, analyzing, and synthesizing
information about world-wide energy markets. Tapping the talents
of its senior-level staff, ESAI provides clients with unparalleled
insight into where the markets have been and where they are
headed. ESAI provides ongoing systematic analysis of energy
prices in the oil, natural gas, and energy markets. For more
information on ESAI services, see www.esai.com.
Contacts:
Jeffrey Shorter, Ph.D.
V.P. Marketing - Energycast Trader
Weather Services International
(978) 670-5090
jshorter@wsi.com
Justin Hill
Media Relations Manager
ESAI
(781) 245-2036
jhull@esaibos.com
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