-- WSI issues an update of special interest
to energy traders --
Andover, MA. - February 24, 2004
WSI Corporation today issued the seasonal outlook for the upcoming
three-month period (March-May). WSI expects this period to average
warmer-than-normal in most locations, with the exception of
cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast and parts of
the Plains. The period will become warmer, relative to normal,
as spring progresses, and by May warmer-than-normal temperatures
are expected everywhere except the Northeast. The WSI seasonal
outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).
WSI expects the following monthly trends:
• In March, cooler-than-normal
temperatures are expected in most locations, with the exception
of the Pacific Coast states, the Southwest, and parts of
the northern Plains and Great Lakes states.
• In April, cooler-than-normal temperatures
are expected in the Plains, Great Lakes states, and Northeast.
Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected in the West
and Southeast.
• In May, cooler-than-normal temperatures
are expected to be confined to the Northeast, with widespread
warmer-than-normal temperatures elsewhere..
According to WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford, “It
appears that much of the country will continue cold in March,
especially in the East. As spring progresses, warmer-than-normal
temperatures will become much more common, especially in the
western US.”
Effects in the Marketplace
WSI’s forecast indicates cooler-than normal temperatures
in most of the eastern U.S. and Central Plains states for
March. Although inventories of natural gas are adequate to
finish the heating season comfortably and within normal levels,
a late season cold snap would prove bullish for regional delivered
natural gas prices. Northeast power prices will moderate with
lower seasonal loads if gas prices remain steady or move lower.
In April and May, shoulder period demand for both gas and
power will make temperature effects of much less importance.
Generator maintenance schedules will have a greater impact
on power prices in most regions. Warm temperatures and a dry
outlook for March and April will be bullish for power prices
in California.
WSI successfully predicted (1) the unusually cold January
2004 in much of the eastern US, (2) a cool 2003 summer in
the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, and (3) a cold ‘02-‘03
winter in the Southeast. Their three-month seasonal forecasts
have been skillful for 8 out of the last 12 periods. A skillful
seasonal forecast is defined as one that is closer to what
is actually observed than a forecast using the 30-year average
temperature.
WSI, which provides customized weather information to energy
traders, issues its Seasonal Outlook twice monthly. The next
forecast update for March-May will be issued on February 26,
with the next new forecast package (for April-June) issued
on March 16.
About WSI
WSI Corporation is the world's leading provider of weather-driven
business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation,
and media markets, and multiple federal and state government
agencies. WSI is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with
offices in Birmingham, England, and is a wholly owned subsidiary
of Landmark Communications. More information about WSI can
be found at www.wsienergycast.com.
About ESAI
Since its inception in 1984, Energy Security
Analysis Inc. (ESAI) has been dedicated
to monitoring, analyzing, and synthesizing
information about world-wide energy markets.
Tapping the talents of its senior-level
staff, ESAI provides clients with unparalleled
insight into where the markets have been
and where they are headed. ESAI provides
ongoing systematic analysis of energy
prices in the oil, natural gas, and energy
markets. For more information on ESAI
services, see www.esai.com.
Contacts:
Steve Massa
Marketing Manager - Energycast Trader
Weather Services International
(978) 983-6531
smassa@wsi.com
Justin Hull
Media Relations Manager
ESAI
(781) 245-2036
jhull@esaibos.com
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