-- WSI issues an update of special interest to energy traders
--
Billerica, MA. - March 4, 2003
WSI Corporation today issued the seasonal outlook for the upcoming
three-month period (March to May). WSI expects the period to
be cooler-than-normal in the central and southern Rockies, central
and southern Plains, and Pacific Northwest. Warmer-than-normal
temperatures are expected in California and Nevada, the northern
Rockies and Plains, and all areas east of the Mississippi River.
WSI's seasonal outlooks reference a trailing 10-year normal.
WSI expects the following monthly trends:
• In March, slightly warmer-than-normal temperatures
are expected east of the Mississippi River, with the largest
anomalies in the Southeast. Slightly cooler-than-normal temperatures
are expected west of the Mississippi River, with the largest
anomalies in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
• In April, slightly warmer-than-normal temperatures
are expected in California and Nevada, and from the northern
Rockies to the East Coast, including the Southeast and much
of the Gulf Coast. Warmest temperatures, relative to normal,
are expected in the northern Plains and Great Lakes states.
Cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected in the Pacific
Northwest, central and southern Rockies, and central and southern
Plains, with the largest anomalies expected in the southern
Plains.
• In May, warmer-than-normal temperatures are
expected everywhere except the central and southern Plains.
Warmest temperatures, relative to normal, are expected from
the northern Rockies to New England. Cooler-than-normal temperatures
are expected for the central and southern Plains states.
According to WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford, "We
expect below-normal temperatures to develop in March in the
Pacific Northwest, while CPC is favoring warmer-than-normal
temperatures there. We also expect the March-May period to average
slightly warmer-than-normal in the mid-Atlantic states, while
CPC is forecasting cooler-than-normal temperatures."
Effects in the Marketplace
WSI's latest forecast has significant implications for the market.
It indicates heating demand will drop significantly in March
and April, particularly in the Northeast. That should push natural
gas and power prices down substantially, particularly when compared
to current spot market prices. It may also ease concerns about
meeting gas demand during March and meeting electric load during
the traditional March-April outage season. Above-normal temperatures
during May could mean an early start to the cooling season.
If so, gas and power prices will move back up again.
WSI successfully predicted (1) a hot 2002 summer season, (2)
a cold '02-'03 winter in the Southeast and (3) a warm '02-'03
winter in the Pacific Northwest. Their three-month seasonal
forecasts have been skillful for 9 out of the last 12 periods.
A skillful seasonal forecast is defined as one that is closer
to what is actually observed than a forecast using the 10-year
average temperature.
WSI, which provides customized weather information to energy
traders, issues its Seasonal Outlook twice monthly.
About WSI
WSI Corporation is the world's leading provider of weather-driven
business solutions for professionals in the aviation, media
and energy markets, and multiple federal and state government
agencies. WSI is headquartered in Billerica, Massachusetts
with offices in Birmingham, England, and is a wholly owned
subsidiary of Landmark Communications. More information about
WSI can be found at www.wsienergycast.com.
About ESAI
Since its inception in 1984, Energy Security Analysis Inc.
(ESAI) has been dedicated to monitoring, analyzing, and synthesizing
information about world-wide energy markets. Tapping the talents
of its senior-level staff, ESAI provides clients with unparalleled
insight into where the markets have been and where they are
headed. ESAI provides ongoing systematic analysis of energy
prices in the oil, natural gas, and energy markets. For more
information on ESAI services, see www.esai.com.
Contacts:
Jeffrey Shorter, Ph.D.
V.P. Marketing - Energycast Trader
Weather Services International
(978) 670-5090
jshorter@wsi.com
Justin Hill
Media Relations Manager
ESAI
(781) 245-2036
jhull@esaibos.com
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