-- WSI issues an update of special interest to energy traders
--
Billerica, MA. - April 1, 2003
WSI Corporation today issued the seasonal outlook for the upcoming
three-month period (April to June). WSI expects April-June to
be cooler-than-normal in the central and southern Plains and
the Southeast. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected
from the Rockies westward, along with the northern Plains, Great
Lakes, Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. WSI's seasonal
outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).
WSI expects the following monthly trends:
• In April, cooler-than-normal temperatures
are expected in the central and southern Plains, Gulf Coast
states, and Southeast. Coolest temperatures, relative to normal,
are expected in the southern Plains. Warmer-than-normal temperatures
are expected from the Rockies westward, along with the northern
Plains, Great Lakes states, Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic, and
Northeast. The largest positive temperature anomalies are
expected in the Northeast.
• In May, cooler-than-normal temperatures are
expected in the central and southern Plains and the Southeast,
with the largest negative temperature anomalies expected along
the Gulf Coast. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected
from the Rockies westward, along with the northern Plains,
Great Lakes states, Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast.
The largest positive temperature anomalies are expected in
the Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountains.
• In June, cooler-than-normal temperatures are
expected in the northern and central Plains, Great Lakes,
and Northeast. Coolest temperatures, relative to normal, are
expected in the Great Lakes states. Warmer-than-normal temperatures
are expected in the western third of the country, along with
the southern Plains and the Southeast.
According to WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford, "We
expect the recent warm temperatures in the Northeast to continue
in April, while CPC is forecasting equal chances of above- or
below-normal. We also expect the April-June period to be cooler-than-normal
in the central Plains, while CPC is forecasting warmer-than-normal
temperatures in that region."
Effects in the Marketplace
WSI's latest forecast indicates there may be modest boosts to
cooling demand during mid- to late-May, courtesy of above-normal
temperatures in large sections of the country. Above-normal
temperatures may have limited impact in April and early May
since electric load is traditionally very low during that period.
Barring unexpected heat waves or cold spells, outages tend to
be among the primary price drivers during April and early May.
The forecast has bearish implications for the Midwest and Northeast
during June, when temperatures and, therefore, cooling demand
are expected to be below normal.
WSI successfully predicted (1) a hot 2002 summer season, (2)
a cold '02-'03 winter in the Southeast and (3) a warm '02-'03
winter in the Pacific Northwest. Their three-month seasonal
forecasts have been skillful for 9 out of the last 12 periods.
A skillful seasonal forecast is defined as one that is closer
to what is actually observed than a forecast using the 30-year
average temperature.
WSI, which provides customized weather information to energy
traders, issues its Seasonal Outlook twice monthly.
About WSI
WSI Corporation is the world's leading provider of weather-driven
business solutions for professionals in the aviation, media
and energy markets, and multiple federal and state government
agencies. WSI is headquartered in Billerica, Massachusetts
with offices in Birmingham, England, and is a wholly owned
subsidiary of Landmark Communications. More information about
WSI can be found at www.wsienergycast.com.
About ESAI
Since its inception in 1984, Energy Security Analysis Inc.
(ESAI) has been dedicated to monitoring, analyzing, and synthesizing
information about world-wide energy markets. Tapping the talents
of its senior-level staff, ESAI provides clients with unparalleled
insight into where the markets have been and where they are
headed. ESAI provides ongoing systematic analysis of energy
prices in the oil, natural gas, and energy markets. For more
information on ESAI services, see www.esai.com.
Contacts:
Jeffrey Shorter, Ph.D.
V.P. Marketing - Energycast Trader
Weather Services International
(978) 670-5090
jshorter@wsi.com
Justin Hill
Media Relations Manager
ESAI
(781) 245-2036
jhull@esaibos.com
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