-- WSI issues an update of special interest to energy traders
--
Billerica, MA. - April 29, 2003
WSI Corporation today issued the seasonal outlook for the upcoming
three-month period (May to July). WSI expects May and June to
be cooler-than-normal in California, the Southwest, southern
Rockies, southern Plains, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Warmer-than-normal
temperatures are expected in the Pacific Northwest, northern
Rockies, northern Plains, and Southeast. WSI expects a brief
transition in July to cooler-than-normal temperatures in the
Ohio Valley and west of the Mississippi River, with above-normal
temperatures in the Northeast. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference
a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).
WSI expects the following monthly trends:
• In May, cooler-than-normal temperatures are
expected in the Northeast, mid-Atlantic, southern Plains,
Southwest and California, with the largest negative temperature
anomalies expected in coastal California. Warmer-than-normal
temperatures are expected in the Southeast, western Great
Lakes states, northern Plains, northern and central Rockies,
and the Pacific Northwest. The largest positive temperature
anomalies are expected in the Pacific Northwest.
• In June, cooler-than-normal temperatures are
expected in the Northeast, mid-Atlantic, and eastern Great
Lakes states, along with the Southwest, southern and central
Rockies, and California. Coolest temperatures, relative to
normal, are expected in California. Warmer-than-normal temperatures
are expected in the Southeast, Plains, northern Rockies, and
Pacific Northwest, with the largest temperature anomalies
expected in the northern Rockies.
• In July, cooler-than-normal temperatures are
expected in the Great Lakes states, Plains, and all areas
west of the Rockies. Coolest temperatures, relative to normal,
are expected in the southern Plains. Warmer-than-normal temperatures
are expected in the Northeast, mid-Atlantic, and Southeast,
with the largest temperature anomalies expected in the Southeast.
According to WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford, "We
expect the recent cool temperatures in the Southwest to continue
in May, while CPC is forecasting above-normal temperatures in
that region. We also expect the entire May-July period to be
cooler-than-normal in the Southwest, while CPC is again forecasting
warmer-than-normal temperatures in that region."
Effects in the Marketplace
WSI's current forecast indicates cooler-than-normal temperatures
in many sections of the country for May and June which will
moderate cooling loads. In the more volatile Northeast and California
markets, cooler temperatures will have a bearish impact on prices
primarily due to lower gas prices. Cooler weather will allow
higher rates of natural gas inventory builds and lead to a near-term
easing in gas prices. The above-normal forecast in the Northeast
and mid-Atlantic for July will be bullish. Above-normal temperatures
in the Pacific Northwest for May and June will accelerate snowmelt
and spring runoffs, drawing on hydro resources early, thus providing
a more bullish outlook for Western prices during the summer.
WSI successfully predicted (1) a hot 2002 summer season, (2)
a cold '02-'03 winter in the Southeast and (3) a warm '02-'03
winter in the Pacific Northwest. Their three-month seasonal
forecasts have been skillful for 8 out of the last 12 periods.
A skillful seasonal forecast is defined as one that is closer
to what is actually observed than a forecast using the 30-year
average temperature.
WSI, which provides customized weather information to energy
traders, issues its Seasonal Outlook twice monthly.
About WSI
WSI Corporation is the world's leading provider of weather-driven
business solutions for professionals in the aviation, media
and energy markets, and multiple federal and state government
agencies. WSI is headquartered in Billerica, Massachusetts
with offices in Birmingham, England, and is a wholly owned
subsidiary of Landmark Communications. More information about
WSI can be found at www.wsienergycast.com.
About ESAI
Since its inception in 1984, Energy Security Analysis Inc.
(ESAI) has been dedicated to monitoring, analyzing, and synthesizing
information about world-wide energy markets. Tapping the talents
of its senior-level staff, ESAI provides clients with unparalleled
insight into where the markets have been and where they are
headed. ESAI provides ongoing systematic analysis of energy
prices in the oil, natural gas, and energy markets. For more
information on ESAI services, see www.esai.com.
Contacts:
Jeffrey Shorter, Ph.D.
V.P. Marketing - Energycast Trader
Weather Services International
(978) 670-5090
jshorter@wsi.com
Justin Hill
Media Relations Manager
ESAI
(781) 245-2036
jhull@esaibos.com
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