Update on Hurricane Sandy
October 29, 2012 at 1:00pm EDT
As of 5am EDT today, Hurricane Sandy was located about 385 miles SSE of New York City. The storm’s current position at 12:00pm EDT is 37.5ºN and 71.5ºW.Sandy is now moving north at 14mph with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph.
As the day progresses, Sandy will phase with a deep upper level trough, turning the storm northwest. As this phasing occurs, Sandy will begin to lose its tropical characteristics and will become a hybrid-type storm. Based on the current northward motion, WSI's track is slightly to the right of the NHC's and a little slower with the turn northwest. WSI is projecting a landfall over central New Jersey, in line with a global model consensus.
At this time, all global models are forecasting that Sandy’s central pressure will drop to around 945mb as it approaches the Mid-Atlantic coast. This projection could change; however, as the storm spends the next several hours in a region of low wind shear and warm Gulf Stream waters.There is the potential for Sandy’s pressure to be lower than 945mb prior to landfall.
Currently, the WSI RPM shows Sandy moving inland across southern New Jersey between 7-8pm tonight with a central pressure of 944mb. Keep in mind that this is a record low pressure for most of the cities in the Mid-Atlantic north to southern Connecticut area. This means that winds will be extreme later today and this evening.
According to our team of meteorologists, a swath of intense low-level winds will pivot across southern New England, southeast New York and eastern New Jersey during Monday afternoon and night with winds of 70-100KT above 800 FT. Some of these winds could be brought down to the surface with heavier rain bands. These winds are projected to diminish during Tuesday morning, although G>40KT are likely to continue in the New Jersey/New York area through Tuesday afternoon.
In addition to strong winds, storm surge greater than 4-8ft is likely from Long Island, through NYC and Connecticut. Moderate to heavy rain will also occur from Virginia through southern New Jersey this morning expanding northward, reaching southern New England this afternoon. The NYC and Boston area can expect 1-3” of rain. The RPM is predicting rainfall totals in excess of 8-10” across most of Delaware and eastern Maryland with more than 4-5” forecasted for far southern New Jersey, the southern half of Pennsylvania and into eastern West Virginia. The mountains of eastern West Virginia (near Beckley) are expected to see over 2 ft. of snow.
Stay tuned for updates as Hurricane Sandy progresses.