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What’s the Outlook for Spring?

One of the best teams of “seasoned” long-range forecasters in the country can be found in WSI’s Energy division. This group of professional forecasters issues seasonal outlooks that are consistently among the best in the industry, and relied upon by energy professionals as an indispensable tool in planning the purchase and sale of energy on the trader markets.

The long-range forecast team uses an assortment of modeling tools to develop their seasonal forecasts. These tools include a Climate Model, and two Statistical Model Forecasts, all run at WSI in Andover, Massachusetts. The group also analyzes such atmospheric phenomenon as the North American Oscillation (NAO), the presence or absence of El Nino / La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific, snow pack, and sea surface temperature changes, among others.


The group recently published their Spring Outlook for the period March through May. It can be summarized as follows:

After a relatively mild winter for most US locations, the WSI Spring 2005 temperature forecast indicates that a cool spring is expected for much of the northern US (shades of blue on the map). The cold spring will be especially pronounced in the northern plains, northern Rockies, and northern New England. Slightly warmer than normal temperatures (shades of orange) are expected in most of the southern third of the country along with the Pacific coast states. It is important to note that most of the cool weather (relative to normal) will occur in April and May (our forecast for March is quite warm in most US locations).
   
Besides the cool temperatures, the northern tier of US states is also expected to experience a wet spring (shades of green on the map), especially in April and May. The south central and southeastern US are forecast to dry out considerably in April and May, heading into summer (shades of orange and red).