One of the best teams of “seasoned” long-range forecasters
in the country can be found in WSI’s Energy division. This group
of professional forecasters issues seasonal outlooks that are consistently
among the best in the industry, and relied upon by energy professionals
as an indispensable tool in planning the purchase and sale of energy
on the trader markets.
The long-range forecast team uses an assortment of modeling tools
to develop their seasonal forecasts. These tools include a Climate
Model, and two Statistical Model Forecasts, all run at WSI in Andover,
Massachusetts. The group also analyzes such atmospheric phenomenon
as the North American Oscillation (NAO), the presence or absence of
El Nino / La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific, snow pack, and
sea surface temperature changes, among others.
The group recently published their Spring Outlook for the period March
through May. It can be summarized as follows:
  |
After a relatively mild winter for most US locations, the WSI
Spring 2005 temperature forecast indicates that a cool spring is
expected for much of the northern US (shades of blue on the map).
The cold spring will be especially pronounced in the northern plains,
northern Rockies, and northern New England. Slightly warmer than
normal temperatures (shades of orange) are expected in most of
the southern third of the country along with the Pacific coast
states. It is important to note that most of the cool weather (relative
to normal) will occur in April and May (our forecast for March
is quite warm in most US locations). |
| |
|
  |
Besides the cool temperatures, the northern tier of US states
is also expected to experience a wet spring (shades of green on
the map), especially in April and May. The south central and southeastern
US are forecast to dry out considerably in April and May, heading
into summer (shades of orange and red). |