2004-2005 WSI Winter Forecast

WSI Energycast Outlook Calls for Cold Period in Eastern and Southern US, Warm in Western and Northern US

WSI Corporation issued the seasonal outlook for the upcoming three-month period (November-January). WSI expects this period to average cooler-than-normal in the eastern US and the southern Plains. Warmer-than-normal temperatures will be the rule in all of the western US, along with the northern Plains. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).
The monthly breakdown follows:

In November:

Northeast – Warmer than normal
Southeast – Cooler than normal, with exception of FL
N Central – Warmer than normal
S Central – Cooler than normal
Northwest – Warmer than normal, with exception of WA
Southwest – Warmer than normal

In December:

Northeast – Cooler than normal
Southeast – Cooler than normal, especially FL
N Central – Warmer than normal, especially ND/MN
S Central – Cooler than normal, especially TX
Northwest – Warmer than normal, especially WA
Southwest – Warmer than normal, except for AZ/NM

In January:

Northeast – Cooler than normal, especially New England
Southeast – Cooler than normal
N Central – Warmer than normal
S Central – Cooler than normal
Northwest – Warmer than normal, especially WA/OR
Southwest – Warmer than normal, especially AZ/CA

According to WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford, “After a relatively mild November, we expect colder-than-normal temperatures to develop in the East and ridging and warmer-than-normal temperatures in the West. We expect a pattern somewhat similar to the winter of 2002-03, although we do expect this pattern to emerge somewhat later than it did in 2002, when the pattern for the winter had locked in by late October.”

WSI successfully predicted (1) the unusually cold January 2004 in much of the eastern US, (2) a cool 2003 summer in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, and (3) a cold ‘02-‘03 winter in the Southeast. Their three-month seasonal forecasts have been skillful for 7 out of the last 12 periods. A skillful seasonal forecast is defined as one that is closer to what is actually observed than a forecast using the 30-year average temperature.